The hottest task of energy conservation and emissi

Energy conservation and emission reduction tasks are completed ahead of schedule, and PVC cost support is about to disappear.

in order to complete the national "Eleventh Five Year Plan" energy conservation and emission reduction tasks, all regions began the production and electricity restriction policy for the calcium carbide industry in July, which also opened the curtain for the rise of calcium carbide prices. Since the end of July, the average price of calcium carbide across the country has increased by 34.9%. From the perspective of the price curve, it can be said that it has soared all the way and kept rising. Among them, the average price of calcium carbide in Northeast China increased the most, reaching 41.4%, while the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China, which increased the least, also increased by 27.0%

data source: Yong'an Futures Research Institute

the rise in the price of calcium carbide is attributed to the local production and power restriction policies. The main production areas, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, Shaanxi and other places have issued a phased or long-term policy to shut down the power supply of stone furnaces, which has led to a tight supply of domestic calcium carbide as a whole. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the total output of calcium carbide in China in October 2010 was 1.16 million tons, basically the same as that of 1.15 million tons in September, a year-on-year decrease of 11%. The output of Inner Mongolia was 288000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%; The output of Ningxia was 148000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.5%; The output of Shaanxi was 64000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%. At the same time, since July, the transportation situation in Northwest China has been relatively tense under the influence of ripe melons and fruits and coal transportation in winter, which has also hindered the outward transportation of calcium carbide and caused a shortage of goods in the market. Some PVC (7950, -265.00, -3.23%) manufacturers that purchased calcium carbide were even forced to shut down their PVC production equipment under the circumstances of tight supply of raw materials and soaring prices. It can be seen that the task of energy conservation and emission reduction has a significant impact on the calcium carbide industry. Calcium carbide is the main raw material of calcium carbide PVC, and the soaring price of calcium carbide will be transmitted to the price of PVC to a certain extent

completely eliminate the air in the hydraulic universal experimental oil pump

data source: Yong'an Futures Research Institute

it is not difficult to see from the comparison chart of calcium carbide price and PVC price this year that the leading factor of PVC price rise this wave is the rise of calcium carbide price. After the PVC price reached a high level driven by cost support and excessive domestic liquidity, the determinant of the price should focus more on downstream demand, and the role of cost support will gradually weaken with the rise of prices. At present, the state has controlled the foam caused by excessive liquidity by raising the reserve ratio and interest rates for many times, and has begun to heavily regulate prices, making PVC prices fall immediately, devouring the previous virtual high, and turning to a downward trend under the guidance of demand

the PVC production data in October increased unexpectedly under the environment of energy conservation and emission reduction, indicating that the current market supply is not as tight as it appears. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics in the current period, China's PVC production in October 2010 was 953000 tons, an increase of about 47000 tons compared with the previous month, that is, a month on month increase of 5.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in the current period. According to our calculation, the growth rate of domestic apparent consumption in October was only 1.63%, which to a certain extent shows that the current demand is not comprehensively improving, and is basically in a tepid state. The supply and demand situation is not favorable for PVC

on the whole, you can eat or throw away all the bags directly. The national "Eleventh Five Year Plan" energy conservation and emission reduction task has been completed ahead of schedule. The local production and electricity restriction policies will be gradually withdrawn, the supply of calcium carbide will be gradually restored, and the price will fall accordingly. The cost supporting effect of calcium carbide on PVC has been gradually weakened. At present, the market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is not all-round. The positive fundamentals have gradually disappeared with the completion of the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" energy conservation and emission reduction tasks, and PVC will continue to decline in the future. It is suggested that investors should keep a short position mentality, pay close attention to the exit policy of limiting production and electricity in various regions, reasonably control positions and be vigilant against systemic risks

note: this reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, which will also provide inexhaustible development momentum for the extruder industry, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content